Golpe de estado en Honduras

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Coup D'etat in Honduras

Already during the last week tensions grew between the Honduran President and the Supreme Court, the Army and the National Assembly. Reason therefore was the discussion over a referendum planned for last sunday and which was said to be unconstitutional by these last three.

Sunday early in the morning the President was arrested and expelled to Costa Rica, as well as other members of his government. National television, radio, electricity and telephone had been disconnected. The very same afternoon the National Assembly accepted (what appears to be) a false resignation letter of Mr. Zelaya and his government and swore in Mr. Micheletti as new interim president.

It is clear that the facts occurred during the last 48 hours in Honduras should be, are and will be condemned by other nations and international institutions. These events really seem to have turned back the clock for Honduras to the eighties. This in difficult economic times in which especially poor countries as Honduras (70% of the population lives here in poverty) are affected. The result will be, whatever the outcome is, less foreign investments, exports, tourism, ... An economic disaster for one of the least developed countries in the continent.

It could be that President Zelaya has violated the Honduran constitution, but such thing should be resolved between the limits of the law and not by violating back the same constitution and laws, as well as international norms and values.

The move made by the right wing establishment could be classified as little strategic. The coup d'etat will only be counterproductive to them, both internally as externally. The international support for Zelaya is general in the international community and the demand to reestablish him in power is heard all over.

And this is not, as some claim, a clash between left and right. Proof of that is the condemnation of this de-facto government by all nations, including those who would prefer a right wing government in Tegucigalpa. It is about respecting democratic principles and the rule of law.

Unfortunately we cannot turn back the clock, so it is time to search a way out as soon as possible. The coming days there will be a lot of scenarios on the table. Recognizing Mr. Micheletti doesn't seems to be one of them. A simple return to the situation before is unrealistic after what has happened this weekend. Therefore diplomatic negotiations with those who took power seems to be the most promising step to agree a return of Mr Zelaya as president. Conducting negotiations means of course making concessions and which those could be is not clear.

However my recommendation to policy makers would be to propose the organization of early elections as soon as possible. Meanwhile of course Mr. Zelaya should be back in charge. Besides that institutional changes should be made to prevent future trouble and to enforce democracy and rule of law. These changes should be made with all political forces and with the support, control and help of international institutions.

Hopefully by these means, a military solution (if that exists) could be hold off.

A lot has happened on the international stage during the last few months. Meanwhile the economical crisis seems to stay for a bit longer, some political crisis seem to emerge.

First of all there is of course the situation in North Korea, where the time seems to have turned backwards again. Some analysts say that the relations between the West, its Asian allies and North Korea will always go up and down. However this situation can't be healthy for any of both parties. Recent nuclear and missile tests, as well as the aggressive language towards some foreign nations, have turned down completely the diplomatic efforts made. The optimism became pessimism. About the successor of Kim-Jong Il, little is known, but it is very unlikely to change this. Certainly if, as said in the press, the retiring leader choose the son who most resembles himself. We will have to wait and see, but most likely North Korea will, as the BBC puts it, continue to be the classic example of the dilemmas involved in dealing with a state whose behavior is predictably unpredictable. So where do we have to search for possible outcomes? A military action is almost unthinkable, considering the military power that North Korea actually represents. It has not only short and long range missiles (which could even reach Hawaii), but also the best trained army in the world. And above all a very unpredictable leader who could cause, by any such intent, a world disaster. More economical sanctions are not only almost impossible, they are also ineffective since they only really harm the average citizen. Above that it will only strengthen the government in its conviction to further arm the country and to sell its technology to anyone, including terrorists. The only possibility left at the moment is to search to resume the six-party talks as soon as possible.

Furthermore the developments in Iran are another important issue on the international agenda. As you will know the possible fraud at the recent presidential elections have lead to massive protest in the streets of Tehran. The restrictions imposed to the international media, strengthened even more the protesting opposition. Through the internet they reached even more people far abroad. However, to me, it seems wrong, concentrating the discussion on this presidential election. Even if Mr Musavi would have been confirmed as winner of the elections, not much would have changed. Even though he is a reformist, he could never pass over the Supreme Leader on important issues, such as Foreign Affairs, Military policy and the Nuclear Issue. Lets not forget this!