Border dispute between Costa Rica and Nicaragua

Since a few days the old conflict between Costa Rica and Nicaragua over their common border has turned up again. In several occasions both countries disputed the border formed by the San Juan River. Last time a case over the Costa Rican rights of navigation on the river appeared to the international court of The Hague.

However this time tensions seem to be even higher. It started when the Nicaraguan government decided to dredge the river for navigation, without any previous mediation with its neighbor country. Above that the mud was launched to the Costa Rican riverbank and also other environmental consequences where not taken into account.

The direct cause of the actual incident however is the movement of Nicaraguan military troops into Isla Calero, which has always been recognized as part of Costa Rica. However suddenly Nicaraguan authorities claim this island as theirs. Strangely enough if you search a bit on the net, you will find hundreds of maps, including some issued by official Nicaraguan authorities (for example the Nicaraguan institute of Territorial studies), showing this little part as part of Costa Rica.

Somehow it seems that President Ortega wants the press, and with them the public opinion ,to focus all attention on this conflict and forget about all the other serious problems the country faces. Like that he hopes to favor his re-election. An old trick taken over from his predecessor (however unsuccessful last time)?

Golpe de estado en Honduras

La traducción en español del articulo anterior se encuentra en este enlace. (formato PDF)

Coup D'etat in Honduras

Already during the last week tensions grew between the Honduran President and the Supreme Court, the Army and the National Assembly. Reason therefore was the discussion over a referendum planned for last sunday and which was said to be unconstitutional by these last three.

Sunday early in the morning the President was arrested and expelled to Costa Rica, as well as other members of his government. National television, radio, electricity and telephone had been disconnected. The very same afternoon the National Assembly accepted (what appears to be) a false resignation letter of Mr. Zelaya and his government and swore in Mr. Micheletti as new interim president.

It is clear that the facts occurred during the last 48 hours in Honduras should be, are and will be condemned by other nations and international institutions. These events really seem to have turned back the clock for Honduras to the eighties. This in difficult economic times in which especially poor countries as Honduras (70% of the population lives here in poverty) are affected. The result will be, whatever the outcome is, less foreign investments, exports, tourism, ... An economic disaster for one of the least developed countries in the continent.

It could be that President Zelaya has violated the Honduran constitution, but such thing should be resolved between the limits of the law and not by violating back the same constitution and laws, as well as international norms and values.

The move made by the right wing establishment could be classified as little strategic. The coup d'etat will only be counterproductive to them, both internally as externally. The international support for Zelaya is general in the international community and the demand to reestablish him in power is heard all over.

And this is not, as some claim, a clash between left and right. Proof of that is the condemnation of this de-facto government by all nations, including those who would prefer a right wing government in Tegucigalpa. It is about respecting democratic principles and the rule of law.

Unfortunately we cannot turn back the clock, so it is time to search a way out as soon as possible. The coming days there will be a lot of scenarios on the table. Recognizing Mr. Micheletti doesn't seems to be one of them. A simple return to the situation before is unrealistic after what has happened this weekend. Therefore diplomatic negotiations with those who took power seems to be the most promising step to agree a return of Mr Zelaya as president. Conducting negotiations means of course making concessions and which those could be is not clear.

However my recommendation to policy makers would be to propose the organization of early elections as soon as possible. Meanwhile of course Mr. Zelaya should be back in charge. Besides that institutional changes should be made to prevent future trouble and to enforce democracy and rule of law. These changes should be made with all political forces and with the support, control and help of international institutions.

Hopefully by these means, a military solution (if that exists) could be hold off.

A lot has happened on the international stage during the last few months. Meanwhile the economical crisis seems to stay for a bit longer, some political crisis seem to emerge.

First of all there is of course the situation in North Korea, where the time seems to have turned backwards again. Some analysts say that the relations between the West, its Asian allies and North Korea will always go up and down. However this situation can't be healthy for any of both parties. Recent nuclear and missile tests, as well as the aggressive language towards some foreign nations, have turned down completely the diplomatic efforts made. The optimism became pessimism. About the successor of Kim-Jong Il, little is known, but it is very unlikely to change this. Certainly if, as said in the press, the retiring leader choose the son who most resembles himself. We will have to wait and see, but most likely North Korea will, as the BBC puts it, continue to be the classic example of the dilemmas involved in dealing with a state whose behavior is predictably unpredictable. So where do we have to search for possible outcomes? A military action is almost unthinkable, considering the military power that North Korea actually represents. It has not only short and long range missiles (which could even reach Hawaii), but also the best trained army in the world. And above all a very unpredictable leader who could cause, by any such intent, a world disaster. More economical sanctions are not only almost impossible, they are also ineffective since they only really harm the average citizen. Above that it will only strengthen the government in its conviction to further arm the country and to sell its technology to anyone, including terrorists. The only possibility left at the moment is to search to resume the six-party talks as soon as possible.

Furthermore the developments in Iran are another important issue on the international agenda. As you will know the possible fraud at the recent presidential elections have lead to massive protest in the streets of Tehran. The restrictions imposed to the international media, strengthened even more the protesting opposition. Through the internet they reached even more people far abroad. However, to me, it seems wrong, concentrating the discussion on this presidential election. Even if Mr Musavi would have been confirmed as winner of the elections, not much would have changed. Even though he is a reformist, he could never pass over the Supreme Leader on important issues, such as Foreign Affairs, Military policy and the Nuclear Issue. Lets not forget this!

Big words

This week has been, without any doubt, incredibly important for the near future of the international community! It started with the Afghanistan Conference in The Hague, continued in London with the G20 Summit and now moves on to Strasbourg and Prague. But, are all those big words expressed by world leaders really true? The answer is probably mixed. Of course the show and dinner parties are still dominating these kind of events. But to say it was totally meaningless would be a lie. At the end, evening diplomacy with a glass of wine in the hand is sometimes more effective than the dialogues during the actual conferences.

First of all the Afghanistan conference succeeded in approaching both Iranian and US delegations to work together at some aspects. A very first approach to Iran, after decades of hostility, was made by Obama a week ago during a video message. This message was however received negatively by the supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Jamenei. Despite this Iranian diplomats seem to have accepted to take a first step towards reconciliation with the US. Hopefully this is only a first step in new and positive direction, which could cause not only some relief in Afghanistan, but also in a big part of the Middle East and last but not least in Iran itself. However this process is still in an early stage, we could start dreaming of Iran opening up and the international community lifting its sanctions. Lets not forget that these sanctions are of above all politically inspired and affect especially the poorest inhabitants, not its leaders.

Furthermore the US announced a reorientation of its policies towards Afghanistan. Apart from the increase of troops and the cooperations with Afghanistan's neighbors, also civil efforts would be enforced with the help of other NATO members. Of course it is difficult to say weather these changes will actually stabilize the country, but it looks as a move in the right direction.

The G-20 summit in London, was another important meeting held this week and was meant to tackle the problems of the current economical crisis. Also here it is difficult to say weather the measures taken could actually solve such a complex problem and mean more than a one or two days of optimism in Wall Street. Lets above all not focus on the billions, which after all where partly just a reaffirmation of earlier promises! The focus has to be instead at the causes of the problem: credits, hedge funds, ... So yes, it seems to me, that within the boundaries of the reasonable and the opportune re-regulation is necessary! If not we will soon have a re-encounter with this financial crisis.

A shift in US-Iran relations?

Today US President Obama published a video in which he extended his hand to the Islamic Republic of Iran. This message definitely marks the end of an era, however it is still waiting for an official reaction of his Iranian counterpart, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

The tensions between these two countries ever existed since the Islamic Revolution in 1978. During the last Bush administration The White House justified its attitude towards Iran by claiming that this country was building a nuclear weapon. However it is not hard to find other more important reasons behind.

Hopefully together whit this policy change, the US will forget its invasion plans and will convince the Israeli government, even when headed by Netanyahu, to do the same. This would be the one and only way to bring any change in the region. Former

President Bush's policy toward the Middle East has been the ideal feeding ground for extremism. The Islam and the Islamic world has been to easily blamed for all sorts of problems and conflicts, causing a humiliation and feeling of injustice in this region. These feelings are of course a perfect basis for populism or radicalism. But, as Rik Coolsaet claims in his book "De Geschiedenis van de Wereld van Morgen" (The History of the World of Tomorrow), claims this tendency of radicalisation has reached especially young third generation immigrants in the western world who confront in many cases an identity crisis. Since,they are not accepted as part of the society, because of stigmas and (unjustified) fears, they find refuge in these groups.

It is as an unending cycle. Fears and prejudices cause populist politicians and opinion makers to out radical statements towards Muslims, who as cause of this (without generalising of course!) search refuge in their own radicalisation (which is not about religion at all!) and that causes again Extreme-Right to strengthen their claims... The only way out is to build up a positive dialogue and a real integration of these people in the society where the are part of. This integration is about much more than learn a language, local history or political systems! And the responsibility of these efforts is of everybody! Lets stretch all our hands!

President Obama's Message to Iran

Further reading:

Prof. Dr. Rik Coolsaet website (Nederlands, English, Français)

More about this Issue:

White House (English)

Al Jazzeera (English)

BBC World (English)

CNN International (English)

Press TV (English)

Islamic Republic News Agency (English, Persian, Arab)

Background:

Crisisgroup (English, Français, Deutsch, Español, ...)

Council on Foreign Relations on Iran (English)

Iranian President Ahmadinejad (English, Persian)

NY Times on Iran (English)

BBC Q&A (English)

The Economist Country Profile (English)

EU-Iran Relations (English

Is a forgotten conflict remembered again?

This month the International Court of Justice in The Hague, finally issued a warrant of arrest for Sudanese President Omar Bashir for crimes against humanity in the Darfur region. However the bad implications (hopefully only on short term) for the Sudanese, this was a necessary step to end years of impunity. Hopefully accusations will be also directed to other responsibles. Of course together with this warrant of arrest, the international community should be looking very closely at the day to day situation in Sudan and act immediately if necessary to prevent any further atrocities. Hopefully this action marks the end of indifference to what happened the last years and even decades, when this country was left to its own faith and that of its political leaders, who head apparently very little interest in the well-being of the Sudanese. During the absence of the international community and the continuation of impunity, the conflict has become much more complex. Groups have been divided and there are more violent confrontations. There is no time left to wait for action! At the end the stabilisation of the situation could also be in the interest of Sudan's neighbors and economic partners.